Good afternoon,

Yet more lese majeste charges are being laid – this time against the entire board of the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand. A useful right-wing idiot, Laksana Kornsilpa, has filed the charges against the board taking advantage of the fact that anyone is able to file such charges and take part in the suppression of what little free speech there is in the Kingdom. In this case, the PAD stooge is claiming the board are guilty because a DVD has been made available of the speech previously made by Jakrapob Penkair, which already attracted similar charges. Concerned citizens around the world have expressed their dismay that judges are now looking at holding court cases in camera (ostensibly to protect people from learning about what people have been said) and the disgraceful conditions in which defendants are being held. Let us hope an international campaign can bring pressure to bear on this repressive military-Abhisit regime and shame them into doing something.

Two more people have been killed by the H1N1 virus and now schools are being given license to close and people who are paid to know better are stirring up panic in a transparent effort to stop people thinking about the desperate need for political pro-democratic reform.

Two British people are advertising the horrible ordeal they have had to endure by extortionists at the Suvarnabhumi Airport – accused falsely of theft and held at a ‘cheap motel’ until they paid 8,000 pounds – well, I suppose the lesson is to get the word out as quickly as possible if something similar happens and refuse to accept the authority of criminal chancers.

Back perhaps tomorrow – I’m back to Singo tonight and tomorrow is the day of the big move, so not sure if I will have any time to post. Next week has public holidays for Monday and Tuesday (these are for a Buddhist holiday on Tuesday so probably another no drinking day) but I am due at the ICTL (www.ictlconference.com) on Tuesday to Thursday (well, Thursday will be a teaching day) so again not sure how much time I will have during that period. We shall see.

I think we should be looking at replacing Kevin Doyle with the Inter Milan first team squad.

Good afternoon,

There seems to be some kind of power struggle going on concerning the nomination for leadership of the National Security Council (NSC), after the rapid transfer of previous incumbent Surapol Puen-Aiyaka. This is the essence of real power politics in Thailand – whose ally gets to control which important but largely invisible post and, therefore, whose hand signs the cheques and disburses the booty of office. When fools and charlatans criticise former PM Thaksin Shinawatra for ‘undermining checks and balances in the system,’ what they really mean is he tried to remove some of these army/establishment cronies and replace them with individuals with more of an incentive to protect democracy. We can see how that ended. Still, as Wolfie Smith used to say, “Come the glorious day ….”

The police are, apparently, no more than a few weeks away from laying charges in the seizure of the two international airports last year – a bizarre seven months later. It will be interesting to see whether any of the vile PAD leadership will be charged (obviously they should be as these are open and shut cases). At the time, the PAD was protected by certain very highly placed people it is not possible to name but the yellow shirts seem to have lost the favour since then. Let’s see – and let’s see if any of them threaten to reveal certain truths if they are finally threatened with richly-deserved terms in prison.

Muay Thai is in trouble and promoters at the two principal stadiums (or stadia if you prefer) are organizing an unprecedented joint tournament for this Friday at Lumpini. Star fighter Sanchai Sor Kingstar will fight two opponents – rounds alternately will be contested against Saketdao Petphayathai and Pethbunchu F.A. Group, which sounds a little unfair but what do I know.

Back tomorrow.

And so, farewell, Kevin Doyle!

You only cost 78,000 quid

And scored 54 goals. Who will be next?

By E.J. Thribb.

Good afternoon,

The main problem with avoiding making a decision and instead asking someone to make it for you is revealed for spineless PM Abhisit today. It is that dodgy bus deal again – in what is widely perceived to be a corrupt policy aimed at diverting money into the pockets of coalition party Bhumjaithai, ministers asked for a big new purchase or leasing of buses for Bangkok. Abhisit, as ever, tried to chicken out of making any decision that would reveal his lack of integrity and instead asked the NESDB to make a decision for him. The NESDB (National Economic and  Social Development Board) has spent a month creating a report which seems to avoid making any meaningful recommendations at all. Four suggestions are made: “One of the four suggestions was that the BMTA's improvement plan should not put a greater burden on the government and that it should improve the agency's performance.

The other suggestions are: using estimates of how many passengers would use the buses as a basis for considering how many new buses would be needed; the need to revamp routes to end redundancy; and devising measures to guarantee better and safer services.” Well, as I believe it was Hamlet’s pal whose name momentarily escapes me said, there needs no ghost come from Hell to tell us this.

But soft – what new refusal to make a decision is this? The Government Lottery Office is to have another month to decide whether or not to introduce the online lottery. That will end well.

What does it say about a supposedly democratically-elected government that it cannot host an international meeting without resorting to sinister, unaccountable military powers? Well, that’s what we have here. The army and the Secret Hand are invoking the Internal Security Act to cover a forthcoming meeting in Phuket. The powers the military can take for itself are provided for by the junta’s constitution, which was forced through under conditions of martial law. It is more appropriate for suppressing an armed Communist insurrection, which is when the Secret Hand first came to prominence and has had no incentive to change its opinions.   

Back tomorrow.

It’s not compulsory, of course.

Good afternoon,

Another victory for the pro-democracy movement, which is recovering its strength with a rally in Bangkok this weekend (somewhere between 20-30,000 braved the rain and the military) and another crushing victory for Puea Thai in a by-election, this time in Sri Saket (other spellings are possible). As the Election Commission seems to be set on banning dozens more MPs for owning shares they were not supposed to own, there may be a waxing of momentum for Democracy over the second half of the year – on the other hand, this will probably make a general election less likely as coalition parties realise that they would lose their seats with fresh voting.

A third person has died from H1N1 in the Kingdom and the total number of infections has now risen to 1,289 (all but a dozen or so have already been cured). The government has denied covering up and censoring information about then umber of infections and deaths.

Southern villagers are to contest the extraordinary legal decision to exonerate all military personnel for responsibility for the Tak Bai massacre. A teaching assistant has been shot dead in the South, presumably by one of the insurgents as the murder follows one of their standard methods.

Finished the Khon Kaen gig – not bad, I think. However, have now had to come quickly to Singapore where her indoors has been having a medical procedure (they wouldn’t even let me in the hospital), as the saying has it. I’ll be going back tomorrow evening and then back here midnight on Friday. The following week has public holidays on Monday and Tuesday but I’ll be conferencing from Tuesday to Thursday. So, not a lot of time ever to do any real work.

Back tomorrow at some stage.

Have we even put in a Eto’s. Pato and Tevez? No ambition, Sir John, no ambition.

Death of Michal Jackson in Thailand: the police believe it was suicide and he was alone at the time of his death; Khunying Porntip says it was the police and absolutely not the army at all; the Nation and the Manager and the Foreign Secretary have openly named a former prime minister as a murderer.

Good morning,

Those who fail to learn the mistakes of the past are of course condemned to repeat them – thus, the Bhumjaithai Party: having been roundly rejected by the good people of Sakon Nakhon at this weekend’s by-election, the party will continue with exactly the same tactics (under the title ‘change of plan’) at next weekend’s Si Sa Ket by-election (the party does not have a candidate standing but will be ‘helping’ the Chart Thai Pattana candidate. Their new/exactly the same as the old policy? Spreading lies about Thaksin Shinawatra and intensifying the use of money politics: such as the One Village One Sportsground policy – here we are at a time of global financial crisis, with thousands and ultimately millions of Thai people losing their jobs and their livelihoods and a desperate need for new education, training and jobs and they are promising ‘sports grounds?’ Anyone would think this kind of nonsense was invented by rich people with no understanding of how the poor actually live. Eh? Oh.

One woman is in a serious condition as a result of the H1N1 virus but nobody else is apparently causing concern. There are now 774 confirmed cases in Thailand or 899 if this slightly later update is to be believed, which I suppose it is.

The latest round of disqualifications of MPs for holding shares they should not be holding is expected shortly – as ever, the opposition Pheua Thai party is expected to be disproportionately affected as, in a no way surprising development, the investigation into similar complaints filed against the right-wing military-PAD supported Democrat Party has not been completed yet.

Back – well, not entirely sure. I’m off tonight to Khon Kaen to do a gig for the Mekong Institute and will not be back before Friday evening. Not sure what kind of internet access I will get there or how much time. So I may not be back until next Monday; however, we shall see.

Good afternoon,

The Sakon Nakhon by-election has ended with an enormous win for the Puea Thai party – the media, ever alert to the challenge of reducing all events to the clash between personalities, have followed the story that this is a victory for former PM Thaksin (ousted by the 2006 military coup) and who is said to have been active in telephoning village heads prior to the election. It could just as easily be characterised as a victory for democracy over the turncoat Newin and the Abhisit money politics factions. The people have rejected Newin’s promises as unlikely and have demonstrated their understanding of his disgraceful role during the violent dispersal of the pro-democracy demonstrators at Songkran this year.

The thousands of Karen people who have crossed the border into Thailand to escape persecution by the Burmese military are begging not to be forced back across the border by the Thai military. Gaining international publicity is their best hope for safety – we have seen recently how the Thai military behaves when it can work in secret with the shameful treatment of the Rohingya refugees. The Burmese military is a notorious institution.

The Kasikorn Research Centre has published a report that claims that Thai exports will rebound from their downward trajectory from about this month and may experience positive growth by November-December of this year. Let’s hope this optimism is justified – the Commerce Ministry has just released figures for May of this year which show the worst results for exports ever.

Back tomorrow.

20-20 Champions of the World!

Good afternoon,

The military-installed government has pushed its borrowing budget bill through the House of Representatives and now advances it to the Senate – some members of which are offering to provide more rigid scrutiny. That remains to be seen, of course, but the problems, if they arise, are the legacy of decades of murky, opaque money-politics in which budgets are divided between coalition party members who consider themselves to have the right to divert some portion of it for projects of their own devising. Since the military and then judicial coups of the last couple of years has restored money politics at the expense of ideology, then the same snouts in the trough are at it again – under the common circumstances, it is clear that Thailand needs money for a properly-targetted stimulus package but time is dragging on.

The coalition itself may be coming to an end – one of Thailand’s many courts has decided to give a verdict in the rubber saplings ‘corruption’ case in August and one of the many people involved is Newin Chidchob, who is the chief instrument behind the coalition (he is banned from politics but banning only applies to some people). The case concerns a plan under a previous (democratically-elected) government which involved buying millions of rubber plant saplings to plant in Isan – a very sensible plan to provide cash crops, reduce flooding and droughts and improve quality of life for many thousands of Thailand’s poorest people. However, someone has presumably brought forward evidence (of which I am not aware) that not just might there be irregularities in the purchasing but that the policy is some kind of mega-conspiracy involving dozens of the Kingdom’s leading politicians conducted in the full glare of public scrutiny (well, quite). If, heaven forfend, political considerations come into the court’s decision and Newin or his associates are found guilty of whatever the charges are, it is hard to imagine that he will permit the current coalition to continue and, presumably, that will be the end of the Abhisit regime (it is an ill-wind etc).

Forecasts for economic contraction for this calendar year are now around 5% - with the tourism sector set to be among the most badly affected because of lack of money, H1N1, southern insurgency, state-sanctioned violence used against pro-democracy demonstrators and so forth.

Back on Monday, I expect.

It is in the nature of the Chokers to choke – it would have been more surprising had they held their nerve in a low-scoring game (taking pleasure at the expense of others when own team is no good is a low game but the only one in town).

Good morning,

It’s an ill wind and so on: private hospitals are charging people as much as 8,000 baht to test whether they have the H1N1 virus – that’s around US$250 and equivalent to about 45 days’ work at minimum wage levels (which vary somewhat around the country). Even public hospitals are charging up to 4,000 baht – guess who is going to suffer most from this, then and the reason why the full impact will never be known. Another 95 cases were confirmed yesterday, making a total of 405 individuals, although no one has yet died (according to reports).

Apparently, organizing an online lottery is no longer immoral and so corrupt as to warrant the investigation into a prosecution of the entire cabinet – now that the meat puppet Abhisit is in nominal charge, it is now a perfectly legal thing to do. Super-rich child of enormously privileged elite PM Abhisit said he did not agree with gambling – well, he would, wouldn’t he?

While I wrote that last paragraph, the number of H1N1 cases has now risen to 518.

Thai SMEs are more pessimistic than their regional counterparts when it comes to anticipating an increase in economic conditions. Only 21% believe there will be a recovery before 2011. Job losses are continuing – Bangkok Solar Co announced 200 yesterday and the inexorable increases continue – unemployment is likely to peak next year (although some say it will be before the end of this year).

My article ‘Street Vendors in Bangkok Society’ has been published by the Asia Chronicle and is available here.

Back tomorrow at some stage. I’m due to fly to Singo tonight.

Forest first – three certain points, I’m marking them up already.

Good morning,

If in doubt, blame the foreigners – it has worked for decades for Thailand’s right-wing and it seems as if they are not going to give up any time soon – today, three Rohingya men have been arrested and accused of human trafficking, drugs smuggling, arms trafficking, sales of fake passports possibly even to the terrorists who committed the September 11^th, 2001 attacks in the USA, as well as links to Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka. Well, with such terrible people about, surely the government will have to take extra steps to protect us from these evil foreigners – hang on, here’s a convenient government spokesperson in the very same story: “Gen Watanachai Chaimuanwong, former deputy army chief who was in charge of the southern insurgency under the Surayud Chulanont government, warned that the situation in the far South could escalate as more terrorists are trained by Jemaah Islamiyah and al-Qaeda.

"The terrorists have completely overhauled their plans," he said.

"Their war will be more violent. Government authorities cannot fight them because we still adhere to conventional strategies." Conventional strategies appear to include causing 80 men to be suffocated to death after being stuffed into military vehicles for hours, as at Tak Bai (all military personnel exonerated by a court decision) and a long string of controversial acts.

Fortunately, we have the military puppet Abhisit regime to protect us and the cabinet has approved large new budgets for the army to put in its pockets invest in much-needed new equipment: 66 million baht (US$2 million) will go to buying ‘anti-riot equipment’ for soldiers and another 122 million baht (nearly US$4 million) on 24 urgently-needed bulletproof cars. Perhaps if we had a return to democracy, people would not see the need to protest? Well, the fascist yellow-shirts would be back on the streets with their expensively-supplied weapons …

Speaking of the integrity-challenged Quisling, PM Abhisit has denied hiding the truth about the number of H1N1 infections in Thailand. He does not seem to have explained why he will not be asking for the resignation of Public Health Ministry officials who revealed the plan to hide the truth about the number of H1N1 infections in Thailand.

Back tomorrow at some stage, not sure entirely when.

Burton Al-bi-onnnnnn.

Good afternoon,

Violence continues in the south: a teacher and a police officer have been killed in separate attacks, while a rubber planter has been beheaded and his body set on fire in what is said to be a revenge attack for the previous massacre at the Al-Furqan mosque, during which ten people were killed and twelve others injured. The situation appears to be out of control – the Abhisit regime clearly has no real idea what to do and even if they did the military will not let them interfere with their control (there is a lot of money and power involved in being in charge of the situation and the army very rarely disgorges either without a fight). On the other hand, the violence does not seem to be achieving anything – there is not an undisputed leadership of the insurgency and so no one with whom to negotiate (negotiation is usually ruled out by politicians on the ‘we don’t negotiate with terrorists’ rule). The problem is, of course, that terrorism tends to be successful more often than not in forcing states into negotiation in one form or another and sooner or later. The human cost tends to be enormous.

The Public Health Ministry has decided to set aside centuries of proven good sense and instead prevent provincial officials from talking to the media about the extent of H1N1 infection. Meanwhile, wiser counsel prevails in Pattaya where a large, communal cleaning up exercise is taking place to try to buttress confidence. The latest figures (assuming we can believe them) has 109 new cases confirmed today for a total of 310 in the nation overall. More schools are closing. Last year, there were apparently 17,400 cases of flu reported around the country.

More evidence of the shameful double standards that have set in to the judicial system since 2006. So, southern insurgency out of control; public health ministry hiding pandemic details from the public; justice only available to some; who voted for Abhisit anyway? Eh? Oh.

Back tomorrow.

Quarter-final exit = normal service resumed.