Good afternoon,

There are fears that 120,000 Burmese have already been killed by Cyclone Nargis and that up to a million may be threatened by disease and famine. The Burmese junta has opened the country to aid and a trickle is beginning to enter the country. It is reported that the aid is nowhere near enough. The Bangkok Post has a story saying the Burmese generals replaced labels from aid crates from Thailand to pretend they were provided by the junta. The Irrawaddy has a story that the first cargo ship carrying aid to Burma has sunk. Despite the terrible tragedy, the junta pushed forward its sham referendum and early reports suggest nearly 100% support for the military government. Criticising the constitution in public has been made a crime.

Meanwhile, more than half the 3,404 people surveyed by ABAC Poll fear another coup in the next six months or an ‘unexpected violent act.’ Army Commander-in-Chief Anupong Paochinda has again ruled out the possibility of his ordering a coup. Air Force Commander Chalit Phukphasuk has warned Jakrapob Benkair, a Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office, not to try to control the media (O kettle, how black thou art).

Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama has denied any compromise with Cambodia in the ongoing ‘who owns Preah Vihear’ saga. There had been some speculation that the government will yield some land (or claims to the land) in return for concessions re energy, noting the new finds in Cambodian territory of oil and gas and possible future discoveries in the Gulf of Thailand. All of this is being stoutly denied.

We have a nice, shiny, new poster of Manchester City downstairs and publicity is starting for their pre-season tour here. Not sure whether the phrase ‘8-1’ has been banned yet.

Back tomorrow.

Down.

Good morning,

Reports suggest that the cyclone in southern Burma may have killed as many as 250,000 people and left two million homeless. The cyclone affected the densely-populated Irrawaddy delta region and was followed by an inundation which swept away houses, people and all. The official sources continue to talk of 100,000 dead – well, the exact figure will never be known. The military junta continues to hamper the flow of desperately needed aid. The first US aid flight, a C-130 plane, has been prevented from flying to Yangon. There is some talk of over-riding the junta and simply delivering aid anyway – parachute drops of aid are apparently being seriously considered by the US. This would be problematic as sending planes into another country’s airspace without permission is illegal but the alternative is to stand aside as people die and suffer needlessly. The UN has spoken of its disappointment in the Burmese junta’s unwillingness to grant access to the country. Why is the junta acting this way? Firstly, it is composed of very secretive people whose grasp of power depends to a significant extent on keeping its abilities and reach secret and, hence, a subject inspiring fear in the people. Second, they do not want the outside world to see the conditions they have inflicted upon the people. Third, they do not want the Burmese people to meet foreigners and have more reasons to leave the country. Fourth, they are still in denial about the extent of the disaster and intend to continue with pushing forward the referendum on the new constitution.

Waterborne diseases are now the biggest immediate threat.

I returned from Chiang Mai last night. The conference – the Second International Colloquium on Tourism and Leisure was quite successful and I delivered my paper entitled: “Transportation Network Development in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region: Assessment of Its Impact on Tourism and Economic Development.”

Back on Monday.

Good morning,

Foolish people, of whom we have a surfeit, are determined to focus on personalities and not politics, as this example shows. This of course suits the forces of conservatism or the status quo since they can use their influence (in the media, for instance) to blacken the reputation of the individual and by this to defeat the ideas and policies that define the personalities. So, ignoring this kind of approach, what is the point of the Charter Amendments? The Charter was pushed through by the military junta by a minority of eligible voters during martial law. The Charter, which few people actually read, clearly adds power to conservative interests and takes it away from democratically-elected elements. In particular, it provides a mechanism for removing democratically-elected governments which those conservative elements consider to be undesirable – this is by having the political parties involved dissolved by a court acting according to very opaque methods and with a very fuzzy approach to what defines ‘electoral irregularities.’ If the court finds against one individual within a political party, it can then dissolve the entire party. This is the threat that the democratically-elected PPP is facing now – hence the urgency is amending this charter. It appears the court may, realizing that amendments might be expanded perhaps to abolishing the amnesty for the coup ringleaders which was also written into the charter, back off and avoid the possibilities for chaos and street level confrontation that dissolution of the democratically-elected government might inspire.

Burmese (or Myanmarese) PM General Thein Sein is in Thailand on a three day visit to promote good relations between the two countries. Drug suppression, border issues, energy security and food issues are among the topics to be discussed. Thai PM Samak Sundaravej has promised (or threatened) to cook for the General personally. Good relations are important, of course, but there are indications of a new outbreak of the Saffron Revolution are imminent, now that the Burmese junta is trying to put through an unjust charter of its own.

However, the story most people will talk about is this: 70% of Thai women cannot achieve orgasm, according to an international survey.

My review of Geling Yan’s The Uninvited has been published at Bookideas.

Tomorrow is May Day and I am going to schwep to Singo. I might post on Friday. Monday is Coronation Day, another holiday and, in any case, I am due to go to Chiang Mai for the ICTL 2 Conference and return on Thursday evening. Friday is the day the Royal Buffalo digs up the ground and it is determined whether we will have a lucky year or not but I think that is not a holiday here. Well, in short, posting will be a little erratic for the next ten days.

Whoever wins will be playing against ten men in the final with the big game bottler involved.

Good morning,

This week marks the fourth anniversary of the Krue Sa Massacre in the South of Thailand and there are threats of violent reprisals. The army killed 106 southern Muslim Thais on April 28^th, 2008, including 32 people who had taken refuge in the Krue Sa mosque. Violence often takes place on Thursdays so maybe tomorrow will be the day any such incidents occur. The Fourth Army Region is stepping up security in response to the threat. Checkpoints and village patrols are being organized. The terrorists are well-armed and determined – the massacre took place in the wake of co-ordinated attacks on ten police stations.

Not only does there appear to be little if any prospect of peace in the South, there is little prospect of any of those responsible being brought to justice. The Working Group on Justice for Peace has said there has been no progress made with the investigation into who is responsible after three officers were named in a 2006 court decision. No progress appears to have been made under the junta which was then in power, unsurprisingly, and the current PPP-led coalition does not appear to have given the issue a high priority. Cases like this in Thailand can drag on for many years before being all but forgotten, except for the bereaved.

The Ministry of Finance is forecasting that inflation in Thailand will not exceed 4.5% this year, based on Dubai crude stabilizing at US$95 the barrel (how big is a barrel, anyway). On Monday afternoon, the oil was selling at US$110 per barrel. Most of Southeast Asia is anticipating 6% inflation this year and it would not be a big surprise if it approaches that level in Thailand too. In any case, it is a sharp increase on the 2.9% recorded in the last quarter of 2007. Many vulnerable people are likely to suffer.

Back tomorrow.

Off to pay the mortgage.

Good morning,

The government is considering increasing the wages for state employees and increasing the minimum wage. The continuing high prices of oil and food mean that many more people are vulnerable to poverty. When people can no longer afford to have their children stay in school, they bring them out and put them to work and that has a seriously negative impact on their ability to get better jobs in the future. The poor remain poor. The same thing happens when people are sick and cannot afford medicine. At least some farmers are benefiting from the increased cost of rice, although inflation will eventually work its way through the whole economy. Already the higher cost of inputs is causing concern. The Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives is anticipating a 50% increase in the number of loans this year as farmers seek to speculate to accumulate.

The government is planning to work with the government of India to promote additional growth of rice to meet the worldwide shortage. Attention is being focused on the need to improve the farming sector overall.

The Bangkok Post has an interesting article on Pramoedya Ananta Toer, who died two years ago. The article is based on a talk by noted expert Benedict Anderson. Pramoedya has come the closest (although not very close) of any Southeast Asian winning the Nobel Prize for Literature.

Back tomorrow.

0-0 requested and received. Now a home win – a draw might be enough but that puts a lot of pressure to win at Derby.

Good morning,

Five people on a work gang, including two women, were murdered by southern terrorists. The workers were on their way to rebuild an Islamic school in Pattani province. The twenty insurgents, armed with M16 rifles according to reports, hid in an ambush and then attacked the truck carrying the workers. Five were killed and another shot and seriously wounded. There has been a trickle of violent incidents over the last few days, although I have not been reporting them. There does not seem to be any coherent response from either the government or the military forces.

A report on labour conditions in the Thai shrimp industry has drawn a somewhat defensive response from the Bangkok Post. The report alleges child labour, ‘common’ physical and sexual abuse, debt bondage and unsafe working conditions. Thais (in common with many other people, of course) resent criticism from overseas, even when everyone knows or at least suspects it is all true. American reports are complicated by the suspicion that complaints are used as protectionist measures. The Free Trade Agreement between Thailand and the USA, which can now go ahead presumably, is expected to contain quite a lot about labour conditions both because it is necessary and also to drive up Thai labour costs and make exports to America less attractive. The report itself is available here. I cannot download it myself so please feel free to send me a copy.

Meanwhile, more evidence of the declining competitiveness of Thai fruit and vegetables in the wake of increased Vietnamese efforts. The Vietnamese government has taken strides with respect to product quality and is improving the airport and logistics sector so as to provide increased future competitiveness.

My review of Sergei Lukyanenko’s Twilight Watch has now been published at Bookideas. I published a new article at Suite 101 entitled Aristocracy in the Tang Dynasty, while, via Triond, at Relijournal entitled Shamans in Southeast Asia.

Back on Monday. Please, a draw, just a goalless, tedious draw.

Good morning,

Opinion about what to do in the face of the rice crisis remains divided and, occasionally, uninformed. The Internal Trade Department is organizing a meeting of concerned parties to gather data and discuss options in the face of continually rising prices for rice. One leading exporter has observed that world prices ‘must have peaked’ by now – yet there does not seem to be any evidence of this, with supply diminishing and local demand increasing (and requiring subsidies) it seems more likely that high market prices will continue. There are fears that export bans will spark further increases. On the other hand, Japan has rejected a contract to buy 60,000 tonnes of Thai rice so maybe price will fall in response to refusal to pay. In which case, the Japanese would presumably restore interest at a more attractive price, hence sustaining a new level.

Arrests have been made after demonstrators launched yipeng lanterns to try to disrupt flights into and out of Suvarnabhumi Airport. The demonstrators are unhappy about the noise of flights which pass directly over their houses constantly – it is possible to have some sympathy with them but the houses are new and the airport was being built for forty years before finally being opened – did they not stop to think what the noise would be like before buying property? Also, I have to spend enough time hanging around that airport without having planes cancelled or delayed because of yipeng lanterns in the sky.

Chonburi drew 2-2 at home to Chunnam Dragons last night in a setback to their hopes for qualifying for the next stage of the AFC Champions League. Still, the team had gone 2-0 down to the Koreans so should count this as an encouraging fightback. Prior to the game, Chonburi were talking up their chances, saying the Koreans might be wary of the heat and observing that they only lost the game in Korea 1-0 in the last minute and that they were discommoded by the unexpected heavy rain. Alas for Chonburi, yesterday’s game was played in a heavy rainstorm. Gamba Osaka meanwhile beat Melbourne ‘Victory’ 2-0 to put them on ten points, with Chonburi on five, Chunnam on four and Melbourne on three, with two games to go. In Group F, Krung Thai Bank, basking in their 9-1 demolition of Nam Dinh in Bangkok, could only scrape a 2-2 draw in the return fixture. The Bankers have four points and have little chance of overhauling Beijing Guoan or Kashima Antlers, who both have nine points after a 1-0 victory for the Chinese.

Back tomorrow.

Have never been offered anything for a grade.

Good morning,

The cabinet has created a plan to try to secure food security for the foreseeable future. There are increasing concerns worldwide that the amount of food available is becoming insufficient, owing to increased demand and reduced supply with land being redirected towards biodiesel and other products. Already food prices (especially rice and cereals) are reaching record levels and riots are breaking out, with deaths (15 in Egypt at least) to secure food. The Thai cabinet has set aside 10 billion baht (around US$317 million) to restructure ‘crop allocation zones’ across the nation within two years. These zones will not be permitted to be reallocated to biodiesel, housing, golf courses or any other use – owners will receive some compensation. It remains to be seen, as ever, to what extent the rule of law will ensure that compliance with the scheme takes place. There are some unfortunate precedents.

Speaking of which, PM Samak Sundaravej has criticized the World Bank and United Nations for pointing out the problems caused by land diversion and blamed oil exporters instead. Generally, it was put about that Khun Samak was something of a puppet for former PM Thaksin Shinawatra and there still seems to be plenty of ill-informed media commentary to that effect. Khun Samak waited a long time to become Prime Minister and he is not about to listen to other people (having rarely done so in the past, it would appear) or to shuffle quietly off the political scene.

In another example of his independent thinking, it is reported that Khun Samak has been canvassing in support of Khun Duang Yubamrung being restored to his place in the armed services. Khun Duang is the son of scarcely less controversial Interior Minister Chalerm Yubamrung. Duang was dismissed for desertion in 2002 after fleeing to Malaysia following a nightclub incident in which he, it was alleged, shot dead a police officer. He subsequently surrendered to the Thai Embassy in Kuala Lumpur and was found not guilty of any crime. Nevertheless, the move has sparked criticism from various sources, as may be imagined.

Back tomorrow.

Good morning,

Khun Kamol Kamoltrakul, one of three Thai writers being sued by Tesco Lotus, has arrived in the UK to state his case. Khun Kamol, who is a respected figure and an academic, is one of various people to complain about the success of Tesco Lotus in Thailand. There have been many campaigns at local levels against the opening of new supermarkets (not just from Tesco) because of the fear of the impact on local small ‘mom and pop’ retailers, which cannot compete. Tesco point out that they have done nothing wrong (which they have not, so far as I can see) other than be better at business than the smaller shops. They also point out that opening new supermarkets represents good new jobs for people (include former small retailers) and that many people prefer to shop in air conditioned surroundings, with better range of goods and lower prices (plus there is no need to haggle).

Tesco people have brought writs for libel against the individuals concerned on the basis of defamation. Similar tactics have been used in the past by AIS and former PM Khun Thaksin. It is possible (as many have done) to represent these efforts as attempts to suppress free speech and political debate – and considering the quite harsh penalties laid down for libel by Thai law such tactics can be intimidating. On the other hand, the quality of journalism and political discourse in Thailand is such that it is generally not difficult to find factual errors or false claims which can give substance to a claim for libel. The Thailand Journalists Association is to investigate Tesco to determine the extent to which any of the various claims made about them is true.

In not terribly surprising news, it appears the Olympic Torch procession did not go off quite as smoothly as had been portrayed: two of the torches, feared stolen, have been returned and another, wrapped in newspaper, has been found after being gnawed by a dog.

Back tomorrow.

Good morning,

It is generally being reported that the Olympic Torch relay in Bangkok passed off peacefully and successfully. Hundreds of pro- and anti-Chinese demonstrators, mostly students, apparently, did chant at each other but were overwhelmed by the numerous Chinese security guards and Thai police. It would have to have been a serious incident to have made it on to the front pages.

Five people are still in intensive care and another 32 hospitalised after being, so it seems, eating puffer fish fishballs served at a wedding in Nan on Friday. Ninety people were affected overall, suffering from difficulty in breathing and numbness in the limbs. The Public health ministry has warned any factory creating fishballs from puffer fish that they face prison time and/or a fine of up to 20,000 baht.

Global warming silver lining: a man in Phetchaburi is grilling chickens using the power of the sun (magnified by a row of mirrors). The gai yang is apparently very popular. Mr Sila Sutharat can grill some 50 chickens per day, taking around ten minutes each (Thai chickens are not usually very big) and can be sold for 160 baht each, which is a good price. Sun-seared is as good as charcoal-grilled, according to Khun Sila.

I published two more book reviews at Bookideas. They are of: Villages by John Updike and Flashman at the Charge by George MacDonald Fraser.

Back tomorrow.

Already 30 minutes wasted waiting for the network – and it’s only Monday morning.